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Bombardier Aerospace has released its annual 20-year forecast for the business and commercial aircraft market.
As the business and commercial aircraft markets continue to recover from the industry downturn, signs of forward momentum are beginning to emerge. While demand for new aircraft orders will continue to come from established and developed markets, the growth potential in emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Latin America is predicted to play an increasingly important role in the global aviation marketplace. With fuel prices and environmental concerns continuing to rise, operators across both industries continue to focus on fleet optimization and aircraft efficiency.
"Bombardier Aerospace has a long history of developing industry-leading solutions to meet the diverse mobility needs of its customers. This has been achieved by following its long-term vision to create state-of-the-art aircraft, and investments in the technology and the talent to develop new and sustainable products within the business and commercial aviation sectors," said Michael McAdoo, vice president, Strategy and International Development, Bombardier Aerospace. "With its comprehensive product portfolio, dedication to superior customer support, and solid product-development roadmap, Bombardier is well-positioned for future growth."
Business Aircraft Market Forecast Numbers
Bombardier is confident in the strong, long-term potential of the business aircraft industry and forecasts a total of 24,000 business jet deliveries from 2013 to 2032 in the segments in which Bombardier competes, which represents approximately $650 billion in industry revenues. Bombardier's Business Aircraft Market Forecast anticipates 9,800 aircraft deliveries, worth $269 billion, during the 2013 to 2022 period, and 14,200 aircraft, worth $381 billion, from 2023 to 2032.
The business aviation market continues to recover, and while current macroeconomic indicators are mixed, the overall trend for the world economy is stable to positive. It is expected that as confidence returns to world markets, aircraft orders and backlogs will expand and deliveries will grow. While business jet orders and deliveries for 2013 are expected to be comparable to those of 2012, Bombardier forecasts that they will begin to improve in 2014 and that the industry will surpass its prior delivery peak year of 2008 by as early as 2016. It is also anticipated that with demand for business jets shifting towards emerging markets, the fleet of Large and Medium category aircraft will grow, with the Large aircraft category demonstrating the fastest growth.
Over the forecast period, Bombardier predicts North America will receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries between 2013 and 2032, followed by Europe which, despite its continued economic challenges, remains the second largest market. China is forecast to become the third largest region in terms of deliveries over the next 20 years with 1,000 deliveries from 2013 to 2022, and 1,420 deliveries from 2023 to 2032. Bombardier also expects key growth markets including Brazil, India, Russia/the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Mexico, and Turkey to receive a significant share of business jet deliveries during the next 20 years.
Bombardier predicts that, similar to commercial aviation, future challenges facing the business aviation sector include rising fuel prices and increased environmental awareness. Through its new aircraft development programs, Bombardier continues to invest in innovative transportation solutions that include the Global 7000, Global 8000, Learjet 70, Learjet 75, Learjet 85 and Challenger 350 jets.
Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast Numbers
Bombardier Aerospace's 20-year view of the 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft market predicts 12,800 deliveries from 2013 to 2032, generating over $646 billion in sales revenues. While the overall worldwide demand remains the same as the previous year, the regional distribution has been re-aligned with an expectation for below-average GDP growth in the mature markets of North America and Europe, and for more robust growth in emerging markets.
Bombardier's forecasted industry deliveries by segment are:
- 20 to 59 seats: 250 aircraft deliveries
- 60 to 99 seats: 5,650 aircraft deliveries
- 100 to 149 seats: 6,900 aircraft deliveries
In the 60- to 99-seat aircraft market, Bombardier expects the regional jet segment will deliver 2,950 units - representing 52% of the 60- to 99-seat segment total - valued at $105 billion, and the turboprop segment to deliver 2,700 units over the 20-year forecast period. In the 100- to 149-seat segment, demand will be driven by the availability of more fuel-efficient and technologically advanced aircraft types. Deliveries from 2013 to 2032 within this segment are forecasted to reach 6,900 aircraft, worth more than $460 billion.
Strong projected traffic demand, an expanding middle class population in growth markets, and the continued relaxation of scope clauses during the forecast period, are the key driving forces behind Bombardier's 20-year commercial aircraft market forecast numbers. While demand from international markets such as India, China, Africa, and Latin America are expected to increase significantly, North America is expected to remain the world's largest market in aircraft deliveries, taking an expected 3,710 new aircraft, followed by China and Europe with 2,330 and 1,700 aircraft, respectively.
Bombardier's Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast numbers predicts technical obsolescence and rising oil prices will be the most critical factors influencing airline fleet decisions over the next 20 years and, with the increasing demand for more cost effective and fuel efficient aircraft, 60% of the current commercial fleet will be retired by 2032 with most of the retirements occurring in the smaller 20- to 59-seat segment. However, with increased worldwide interest in new generation technologies which allow for larger and more economical 60- to 149-seat aircraft solutions, and steady economic growth in developing markets, new aircraft demand is anticipated to remain strong.
With its three distinct commercial aircraft families--the Q-Series NextGen, CRJ NextGen and CSeries aircraft--Bombardier has created products that will meet its customers growing demand for sustainable transportation solutions that feature a reduced environmental impact.
Bombardier is the world's only manufacturer of both planes and trains. Looking far ahead while delivering today, Bombardier is evolving mobility worldwide by answering the call for more efficient, sustainable and enjoyable transportation everywhere. Our vehicles, services and, most of all, our employees are what make us a global leader in transportation.
Bombardier is headquartered in Montréal, Canada. Our shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (BBD) and we are listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability World and North America Indexes. In the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012, we posted revenues of $16.8 billion. News and information are available at bombardier.com or follow us on Twitter @Bombardier.